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Besa Biel/Bienne vs Rotkreuz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Besa Biel/Bienne
Besa Biel/Bienne
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rotkreuz
Rotkreuz
12/1/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Tissot Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Besa Biel/Bienne39%
×Draw23%
Rotkreuz38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Biel/Bienne
1.63
Rotkreuz
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Besa Biel/Bienne
1.47
Rotkreuz
1.22

allows per match

Besa Biel/Bienne
2.00
Rotkreuz
1.78

finishing

Besa Biel/Bienne+0.00on par
Rotkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Biel/Bienne ↓

Rotkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Besa Biel/Bienne or draw
62%
Besa Biel/Bienne or Rotkreuz
77%
Draw or Rotkreuz
61%

Winning margin

Besa Biel/Bienne wins by 2+
19%
Rotkreuz wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Besa Biel/Bienne 1+ goals
80%
Besa Biel/Bienne 2+ goals
48%
Besa Biel/Bienne 3+ goals
22%
Rotkreuz 1+ goals
80%
Rotkreuz 2+ goals
48%
Rotkreuz 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Besa Biel/Bienne (draw refunded)
51%
Rotkreuz (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Biel/Bienne at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

Rotkreuz away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Biel/Bienne attack 1.47 + Rotkreuz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rotkreuz attack 1.22 + Besa Biel/Bienne defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Besa Biel/Bienne scores more
39%
level
23%
Rotkreuz scores more
38%

Besa Biel/Bienne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Besa Biel/Bienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Besa Biel/Bienne 4–1 Rotkreuz

Besa Biel/Bienne beat Rotkreuz 4-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Tissot Arena in Biel/Bienne.