Röthis 2–0 Kufstein: Result & Stats

Röthis

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kufstein

J. Mair 48'

A. Rexhaj 10'

3/24/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 18Sportplatz an der Ratz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Röthis45%

×Draw23%

Kufstein32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RöthisExpected goals in this matchKufstein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.45

Röthis

1.76

Kufstein

1.45

Röthis creates 21% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 61 away

1.64

creates per match

1.43

1.47

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Röthis

1.64

Kufstein

1.43

allows per match

Röthis

1.47

Kufstein

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Röthis+0.00on par

Kufstein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röthis ↓

Kufstein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Röthis or draw

68%

Röthis or Kufstein

77%

Draw or Kufstein

55%

Winning margin

Röthis wins by 2+

24%

Kufstein wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Röthis 1+ goals

83%

Röthis 2+ goals

52%

Röthis 3+ goals

26%

Kufstein 1+ goals

77%

Kufstein 2+ goals

42%

Kufstein 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Röthis (draw refunded)

59%

Kufstein (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röthis at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

Kufstein away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.89 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röthis attack 1.64 + Kufstein defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kufstein attack 1.43 + Röthis defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Röthis scores more

45%

level

23%

Kufstein scores more

32%

Röthis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Röthis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Rexhaj

46'

F. Domig← T. Hartmann

48'

J. Mair

60'

S. Lauf← M. Knauer

61'

S. Breuss← L. Stückler

73'

K. Kilic← D. Vourtsis

73'

T. Herwig← B. Pichler

81'

I. Jaúregui← Ygor

81'

T. Albrecht← L. Hofmann

82'

A. Knünz← A. Rexhaj

Röthis

Kufstein

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Rexhaj

▼

Hartmann

Manager: A. Özkan

46'▲F. Domig←▼T. Hartmann

61'▲S. Breuss←▼L. Stückler

82'▲A. Knünz←▼A. Rexhaj

Röthis substitutes

DomigBreussKnünzNachbaurWillam

Manager: T. Luchner

60'▲S. Lauf←▼M. Knauer

73'▲K. Kilic←▼D. Vourtsis

73'▲T. Herwig←▼B. Pichler

81'▲I. Jaúregui←▼Ygor

81'▲T. Albrecht←▼L. Hofmann

Kufstein substitutes

LaufKilicHerwigJaúreguiAlbrechtEnzi

Regionalliga - West: Röthis 2–0 Kufstein

Röthis beat Kufstein 2-0 in Regionalliga - West on March 24, 2024.

Goals: A. Rexhaj (10'), J. Mair (48').

The match was played at Sportplatz an der Ratz in Röthis.

Röthis vs Kufstein — Regionalliga - West 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - West: Röthis 2–0 Kufstein