Kufstein 4–1 Röthis: Result & Stats

Kufstein

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Röthis

R. Gërçaliu 90+3'

S. Karayün 76'

L. Hofmann 11', 8'

T. Hartmann 15'

11/9/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 15Kufstein-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Kufstein45%

×Draw24%

Röthis31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KufsteinExpected goals in this matchRöthis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.35

Kufstein

1.65

Röthis

1.35

Kufstein creates 22% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 67 away

1.03

creates per match

1.45

1.25

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Kufstein

1.03

Röthis

1.45

allows per match

Kufstein

1.25

Röthis

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kufstein+0.00on par

Röthis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kufstein ↓

Röthis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kufstein or draw

69%

Kufstein or Röthis

76%

Draw or Röthis

55%

Winning margin

Kufstein wins by 2+

23%

Röthis wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kufstein 1+ goals

81%

Kufstein 2+ goals

49%

Kufstein 3+ goals

23%

Röthis 1+ goals

74%

Röthis 2+ goals

39%

Röthis 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kufstein (draw refunded)

59%

Röthis (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kufstein at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

Röthis away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.27 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kufstein attack 1.03 + Röthis defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.65

Röthis attack 1.45 + Kufstein defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kufstein scores more

45%

level

24%

Röthis scores more

31%

Kufstein at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kufstein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

S. Karayün← T. Herwig

8'

11'

15'

24'

55'

68'

S. Nachbaur← L. Stückler

70'

D. Stoppacher← I. Jaúregui

70'

K. Kilic← S. Lauf

74'

A. Knünz← T. Hartmann

76'

S. Karayün

90+3'

R. Gërçaliu

Kufstein

Röthis

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: D. Wilson

4'▲S. Karayün←▼T. Herwig

24'▲S. Lauf←▼A. Schwab

70'▲D. Stoppacher←▼I. Jaúregui

70'▲K. Kilic←▼S. Lauf

Kufstein substitutes

KarayünLaufStoppacherKilicStekoSchlichenmaier

Manager: A. Özkan

55'▲F. Schöch←▼D. Franz

68'▲S. Nachbaur←▼L. Stückler

74'▲A. Knünz←▼T. Hartmann

Röthis substitutes

SchöchNachbaurKnünzFleisch

Regionalliga - West: Kufstein 4–1 Röthis

Kufstein beat Röthis 4-1 in Regionalliga - West on November 9, 2024.

Goals: L. Hofmann (8', 11'), T. Hartmann (15'), S. Karayün (76'), R. Gërçaliu (90+3').

The match was played at Kufstein-Arena in Kufstein.

Kufstein vs Röthis — Regionalliga - West 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - West: Kufstein 4–1 Röthis