Rothes 1–3 Fraserburgh: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Rothes

1 – 3

Fraserburgh

12/26/2020

FA Cup · 1st RoundMacKessack Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rothes28%

×Draw23%

Fraserburgh49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RothesExpected goals in this matchFraserburgh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.83

Rothes

1.33

Fraserburgh

1.83

Fraserburgh creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.67

creates per match

1.33

2.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Rothes

0.67

Fraserburgh

1.33

allows per match

Rothes

2.33

Fraserburgh

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rothes+0.00on par

Fraserburgh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rothes ↓

Fraserburgh →

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rothes or draw

51%

Rothes or Fraserburgh

77%

Draw or Fraserburgh

72%

Winning margin

Rothes wins by 2+

12%

Fraserburgh wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Rothes 1+ goals

74%

Rothes 2+ goals

38%

Rothes 3+ goals

15%

Fraserburgh 1+ goals

84%

Fraserburgh 2+ goals

54%

Fraserburgh 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Rothes (draw refunded)

36%

Fraserburgh (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rothes at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Fraserburgh away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rothes attack 0.67 + Fraserburgh defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fraserburgh attack 1.33 + Rothes defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rothes scores more

28%

level

23%

Fraserburgh scores more

49%

Fraserburgh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fraserburgh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff