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Fraserburgh vs Rothes — FA Cup 2019

Fraserburgh
Fraserburgh
FT
8 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rothes
Rothes
Butcher 84'
Hawkins 72'
Sopel 68', 4'
Strachan 55'
Barbour 52', 25'
Broch 34'
9/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundBellslea Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fraserburgh62%
×Draw18%
Rothes19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fraserburgh
2.56
Rothes
1.38

Fraserburgh creates 86% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fraserburgh
2.13
Rothes
1.38

allows per match

Fraserburgh
1.38
Rothes
3.00

finishing

Fraserburgh+0.00on par
Rothes+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fraserburgh ↓

Rothes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Fraserburgh or draw
81%
Fraserburgh or Rothes
82%
Draw or Rothes
38%

Winning margin

Fraserburgh wins by 2+
41%
Rothes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fraserburgh 1+ goals
92%
Fraserburgh 2+ goals
72%
Fraserburgh 3+ goals
46%
Rothes 1+ goals
75%
Rothes 2+ goals
40%
Rothes 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fraserburgh (draw refunded)
76%
Rothes (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fraserburgh at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Rothes away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fraserburgh attack 2.13 + Rothes defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

Rothes attack 1.38 + Fraserburgh defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fraserburgh scores more
62%
level
18%
Rothes scores more
19%

Fraserburgh at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fraserburgh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Sopel
25'
Barbour
34'
Broch
52'
Barbour
55'
Strachan
68'
Sopel
72'
Hawkins
84'
Butcher

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fraserburgh vs Rothes

Fraserburgh beat Rothes 8-0 in FA Cup on September 28, 2024.

Goals: Sopel (4', 68'), Barbour (25', 52'), Broch (34'), Strachan (55'), Hawkins (72'), Butcher (84').

The match was played at Bellslea Park in Fraserburgh.