Rotherham 0–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shrewsbury

9/21/2019

League One · Round 10AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Rotherham49%

×Draw26%

Shrewsbury25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.03

Rotherham

1.54

Shrewsbury

1.03

Rotherham creates 50% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 152 away

1.70

creates per match

0.86

1.21

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Rotherham

1.70

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Rotherham

1.21

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

75%

Rotherham or Shrewsbury

74%

Draw or Shrewsbury

51%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

25%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

79%

Rotherham 2+ goals

45%

Rotherham 3+ goals

20%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

64%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

28%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

66%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.21 · 96 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.70 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.54

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Rotherham defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rotherham scores more

49%

level

26%

Shrewsbury scores more

25%

Rotherham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Ihiekwe

Rotherham · D

7.8

Match Events

38'

67'

68'

74'

80'

82'

S. MacDonald← J. Hastie

86'

D. Edwards← J. Laurent

88'

Sean Goss

90'

B. Walker← S. Whalley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamShrewsbury

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots6

7Corners5

17Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots6

4On Target2

7Off Target2

3Blocked2

10Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

399Total Passes252

288Accurate Passes143

72%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4