Rotherham 1–2 Preston: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Preston

H. Odoffin 35'

C. Evans 45+2'

T. Cannon 23'

3/14/2023

Championship · Round 37AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Rotherham42%

×Draw27%

Preston32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.16

Rotherham

1.38

Preston

1.16

Rotherham creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 54 away

1.09

creates per match

0.99

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Rotherham

1.09

Preston

0.99

allows per match

Rotherham

1.33

Preston

1.67

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.48scores more

Preston+0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

68%

Rotherham or Preston

73%

Draw or Preston

58%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

20%

Preston wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

75%

Rotherham 2+ goals

40%

Rotherham 3+ goals

16%

Preston 1+ goals

69%

Preston 2+ goals

32%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

57%

Preston (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.33 · 7 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.09 + Preston defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Preston attack 0.99 + Rotherham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rotherham scores more

42%

level

27%

Preston scores more

32%

Rotherham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

T. Cannon

Preston · F

8.2

Match Events

17'

Hakeem Odofin

23'

T. Cannon↳ R. Brady

35'

H. Odoffin↳ S. Ferguson

42'

Chiedozie Ogbene

45+2'

C. Evans↳ T. Cannon

57'

T. Blackett← W. Harding

57'

C. Washington← S. Ferguson

57'

C. Bramall← L. Hjelde

69'

T. Parrott← C. Evans

72'

J. Lindsay← C. Coventry

73'

P. Kioso← L. Peltier

79'

R. Ledson← D. Johnson

80'

Álvaro Fernández← R. Brady

85'

85'

90+4'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamPreston

Overview

46%Possession54%

6Total Shots7

3Corners5

7Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots7

1On Target3

3Off Target3

2Blocked1

4Inside Box5

2Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

344Total Passes416

220Accurate Passes271

64%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4