Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Preston vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
C. Evans 65'
B. Wiles 55'
J. Rafferty 1' (OG)
2/6/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Preston56%
×Draw25%
Rotherham19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.60
Rotherham
0.82

Preston creates 95% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 12 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Rotherham
0.47

allows per match

Preston
1.18
Rotherham
2.06

finishing

Preston+0.06on par
Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
81%
Preston or Rotherham
75%
Draw or Rotherham
44%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
30%
Rotherham wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
80%
Preston 2+ goals
47%
Preston 3+ goals
22%
Rotherham 1+ goals
56%
Rotherham 2+ goals
20%
Rotherham 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
74%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 61 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Preston defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Preston scores more
56%
level
25%
Rotherham scores more
19%

Preston at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
L. WingRotherhamRotherham · M
7.7

Match Events

1'
J. RaffertyOwn goal
14'
B. Wiles← J. Lindsay
26'
Daniel Barlaser
37'
Ched Evans
55'
B. Wiles↳ L. Wing
65'
C. Evans
66'
D. Johnson← R. Ledson
66'
B. Potts← J. Molumby
66'
S. Sinclair← A. Gordon
66'
M. Olosunde← R. Giles
66'
M. Smith← F. Ladapo
67'
M. Crooks← G. Hirst
72'
Michael Ihiekwe
72'
S. van den Berg← P. Huntington
81'
S. Maguire← J. Rafferty
90'
Matt Crooks
90+2'
R. Wood← D. Barlaser

Possession

60%Preston

Shots

14Preston

Pass accuracy

55%Preston

Statistics

PrestonRotherham
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots15
5Corners3
9Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots15
6On Target5
6Off Target6
2Blocked4
10Inside Box12
4Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
395Total Passes273
278Accurate Passes159
70%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls15
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Championship: Preston 1–2 Rotherham

Rotherham beat Preston 2-1 in Championship on February 6, 2021.

Goals: J. Rafferty (1' o.g.), B. Wiles (55'), C. Evans (65').

Preston controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.