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Rotherham vs Preston — Championship 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Preston
Preston
M. Crooks 86'
R. Wood 53'
R. Ledson 80'
11/7/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham40%
×Draw27%
Preston33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.31
Preston
1.16

Rotherham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 56 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.00
Preston
1.01

allows per match

Rotherham
1.30
Preston
1.62

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more
Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
67%
Rotherham or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
60%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
18%
Preston wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
73%
Rotherham 2+ goals
38%
Rotherham 3+ goals
14%
Preston 1+ goals
69%
Preston 2+ goals
32%
Preston 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
55%
Preston (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Preston away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.62 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Preston attack 1.01 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rotherham scores more
40%
level
27%
Preston scores more
33%

Rotherham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
R. LedsonPrestonPreston · M
7.9

Match Events

23'
F. Jozefzoon← K. Sadlier
42'
Daniel Johnson
53'
R. Wood
59'
J. Stockley← E. Riis
59'
T. Barkhuizen← S. Sinclair
67'
M. Crooks← K. Vassell
75'
P. Gallagher← D. Fisher
80'
R. Ledson
84'
Michael Ihiekwe
86'
M. Crooks↳ M. Olosunde
87'
Joe Rafferty
89'
A. MacDonald← M. Olosunde

Possession

43%Rotherham

Shots

11Rotherham

Pass accuracy

47%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamPreston
Overview
43%Possession57%
11Total Shots8
3Corners2
15Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots8
4On Target3
4Off Target4
3Blocked1
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
305Total Passes401
156Accurate Passes227
51%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Championship: Rotherham 2–1 Preston

Rotherham beat Preston 2-1 in Championship on November 7, 2020.

Goals: R. Wood (53'), R. Ledson (80'), M. Crooks (86').

Preston controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.