Rotherham 2–1 Preston: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Preston

M. Smith 76'

W. Vaulks 45+1'

L. Nmecha 78'

1/1/2019

Championship · Round 26New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham40%

×Draw27%

Preston33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.15

Rotherham

1.31

Preston

1.15

Rotherham creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 60 away

1.00

creates per match

0.99

1.30

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Rotherham

1.00

Preston

0.99

allows per match

Rotherham

1.30

Preston

1.62

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more

Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

67%

Rotherham or Preston

73%

Draw or Preston

60%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

18%

Preston wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

73%

Rotherham 2+ goals

38%

Rotherham 3+ goals

14%

Preston 1+ goals

68%

Preston 2+ goals

32%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

55%

Preston (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Preston attack 0.99 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rotherham scores more

40%

level

27%

Preston scores more

33%

Rotherham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

L. Nmecha

Preston · F

7.9

Match Events

12'

29'

31'

45+1'

46'

46'

67'

74'

76'

78'

82'

83'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamPreston

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots18

3Corners5

13Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots18

3On Target4

2Off Target8

3Blocked6

2Inside Box13

6Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

342Total Passes350

212Accurate Passes217

62%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls9

5Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2