Rotherham 2–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Port Vale

S. Nombe 29', 13'

C. Hall 60'

8/2/2025

League One · Round 1Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rotherham46%

×Draw27%

Port Vale27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.97

Rotherham

1.36

Port Vale

0.97

Rotherham creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

1.12

creates per match

0.66

1.27

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Rotherham

1.12

Port Vale

0.66

allows per match

Rotherham

1.27

Port Vale

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

73%

Rotherham or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

54%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

22%

Port Vale wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

74%

Rotherham 2+ goals

39%

Rotherham 3+ goals

16%

Port Vale 1+ goals

62%

Port Vale 2+ goals

25%

Port Vale 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

63%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.12 + Port Vale defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Port Vale attack 0.66 + Rotherham defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rotherham scores more

46%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

27%

Rotherham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Nombe

Rotherham · F

9.2

Match Events

13'

S. Nombe↳ J. Rafferty

24'

29'

32'

39'

46'

R. Curtis← J. Stockley

46'

F. Ojo← J. Shipley

46'

R. Croasdale← B. Waine

53'

60'

67'

68'

68'

D. Yearwood← L. Kelly

77'

77'

79'

80'

90+6'

B. Heneghan← M. Clark

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamPort

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots18

1.08Expected Goals (xG)2.14

6Corners3

9Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots18

4On Target4

6Off Target12

1Blocked2

5Inside Box13

6Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

343Total Passes375

233Accurate Passes281

68%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

1Offsides2

League One: Rotherham 2–1 Port Vale

Rotherham beat Port Vale 2-1 in League One on August 2, 2025.

Goals: S. Nombe (13', 29'), C. Hall (60').

Port Vale controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Aesseal New York Stadium in Rotherham.

Rotherham vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Rotherham 2–1 Port Vale