Port Vale 1–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rotherham

R. Croasdale 6'

4/7/2026

League One · Round 42Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Port Vale42%

×Draw29%

Rotherham29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.98

Port Vale

1.23

Rotherham

0.98

Port Vale creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

0.90

creates per match

0.80

1.17

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Port Vale

0.90

Rotherham

0.80

allows per match

Port Vale

1.17

Rotherham

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

71%

Port Vale or Rotherham

71%

Draw or Rotherham

58%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

18%

Rotherham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

71%

Port Vale 2+ goals

35%

Port Vale 3+ goals

13%

Rotherham 1+ goals

62%

Rotherham 2+ goals

26%

Rotherham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

59%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.90 + Rotherham defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rotherham attack 0.80 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Port Vale scores more

42%

level

29%

Rotherham scores more

29%

Port Vale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

46

J. Gauci

Port Vale · G

7.6

Match Events

6'

R. Croasdale

57'

Ryan Croasdale

61'

J. Stockley← R. Croasdale

61'

B. Waine← M. Sherif

61'

A. Gray← E. Archer

63'

G. Biancheri← A. Martha

72'

D. Hall← J. Rafferty

77'

J. Holmes← D. Watmore

87'

C. Hall← L. Gordon

88'

E. Campbell← G. Hall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortRotherham

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots10

0.72Expected Goals (xG)1.25

4Corners6

15Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target5

3Off Target3

2Blocked2

3Inside Box9

4Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

299Total Passes340

165Accurate Passes224

55%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides1