Rotherham 1–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

S. Nombe 57'

10/18/2025

League One · Round 13Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham45%

×Draw24%

Leyton Orient31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.34

Rotherham

1.67

Leyton Orient

1.34

Rotherham creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.55

creates per match

1.07

1.61

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Rotherham

1.55

Leyton Orient

1.07

allows per match

Rotherham

1.61

Leyton Orient

1.78

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Rotherham-0.55scores less

Leyton Orient-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

69%

Rotherham or Leyton Orient

76%

Draw or Leyton Orient

55%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

24%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

81%

Rotherham 2+ goals

50%

Rotherham 3+ goals

23%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

74%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

39%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

59%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.55 + Leyton Orient defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Leyton Orient attack 1.07 + Rotherham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rotherham scores more

45%

level

24%

Leyton Orient scores more

31%

Rotherham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Dawson

Rotherham · G

7.9

Match Events

21'

21'

27'

29'

45+4'

46'

57'

S. Nombe↳ J. Baptiste

77'

T. James← A. Connolly

77'

J. Moorhouse← T. Adaramola

77'

J. Koroma← T. Bakinson

77'

S. Perkins← J. Simpson

82'

S. Raggett← S. McWilliams

82'

L. Kelly← J. Hugill

89'

A. Abdulai← S. Clare

90+5'

Daniel Happe

90+2'

D. Yearwood← A. Martha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamLeyton

Overview

38%Possession62%

4Total Shots12

2Corners12

4Fouls12

Shots

4Total Shots12

2On Target3

1Off Target2

1Blocked7

1Inside Box10

3Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

262Total Passes425

158Accurate Passes324

60%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

4Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Leyton Orient

Rotherham beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in League One on October 18, 2025.

Goals: S. Nombe (57').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 4.

The match was played at Aesseal New York Stadium in Rotherham.

Rotherham vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Leyton Orient