Leyton Orient 1–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

D. Happe 68'

10/22/2024

League One · Round 13Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leyton Orient36%

×Draw28%

Rotherham36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.15

Leyton Orient

1.16

Rotherham

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.06

creates per match

1.04

1.25

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.06

Rotherham

1.04

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.25

Rotherham

1.26

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.06on par

Rotherham-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

64%

Leyton Orient or Rotherham

72%

Draw or Rotherham

64%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

15%

Rotherham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

69%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

32%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

11%

Rotherham 1+ goals

68%

Rotherham 2+ goals

32%

Rotherham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

50%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.06 + Rotherham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Rotherham attack 1.04 + Leyton Orient defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

36%

level

28%

Rotherham scores more

36%

Leyton Orient at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

T. James

Leyton Orient · D

8.3

Match Events

45+2'

59'

61'

68'

75'

77'

81'

85'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonRotherham

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots11

3Corners8

12Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots11

5On Target2

6Off Target5

1Blocked4

5Inside Box3

7Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

305Total Passes290

202Accurate Passes178

66%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1