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Rotherham vs Exeter City — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
D. Hall 39'
9/6/2025League OneLeague One · Round 7Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham50%
×Draw23%
Exeter City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.82
Exeter City
1.27

Rotherham creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.55
Exeter City
0.93

allows per match

Rotherham
1.61
Exeter City
2.09

finishing

Rotherham-0.55scores less
Exeter City+0.18scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
73%
Rotherham or Exeter City
77%
Draw or Exeter City
50%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
28%
Exeter City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
84%
Rotherham 2+ goals
54%
Rotherham 3+ goals
27%
Exeter City 1+ goals
72%
Exeter City 2+ goals
36%
Exeter City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
65%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

Exeter City away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.09 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.55 + Exeter City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.82

Exeter City attack 0.93 + Rotherham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rotherham scores more
50%
level
23%
Exeter City scores more
27%

Rotherham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
D. HallRotherhamRotherham · D
7.7

Match Events

22'
J. Rafferty← K. Etete
39'
D. Hall
55'
J. Kayode← D. Hall
64'
S. Cox← J. Aitchison
65'
A. Higgins← J. Wareham
80'
P. Sweeney← D. Andrew
80'
C. Mendes← E. Brierley
84'
L. Kelly← S. McWilliams
85'
J. Baptiste← M. Kaleta
85'
K. Spence← J. Hugill
90+3'
Jamal Baptiste

Possession

39%Rotherham

Shots

14Rotherham

Pass accuracy

47%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamExeter
Overview
39%Possession61%
14Total Shots5
9Corners5
13Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots5
5On Target1
4Off Target1
5Blocked3
11Inside Box4
3Outside Box1
Passing
39%Possession61%
311Total Passes500
223Accurate Passes412
72%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Exeter City

Rotherham beat Exeter City 1-0 in League One on September 6, 2025.

Goals: D. Hall (39').

Exeter City controlled possession (61%) and registered 5 shots to 14.

The match was played at Aesseal New York Stadium in Rotherham.