Rotherham 1–1 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Exeter City

R. James 45'

A. Hartridge 56'

3/15/2025

League One · Round 37AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham50%

×Draw23%

Exeter City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.27

Rotherham

1.82

Exeter City

1.27

Rotherham creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.55

creates per match

0.93

1.61

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Rotherham

1.55

Exeter City

0.93

allows per match

Rotherham

1.61

Exeter City

2.09

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Rotherham-0.55scores less

Exeter City+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

73%

Rotherham or Exeter City

77%

Draw or Exeter City

50%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

28%

Exeter City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

84%

Rotherham 2+ goals

54%

Rotherham 3+ goals

27%

Exeter City 1+ goals

72%

Exeter City 2+ goals

36%

Exeter City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

65%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

Exeter City away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.09 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.55 + Exeter City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.82

Exeter City attack 0.93 + Rotherham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rotherham scores more

50%

level

23%

Exeter City scores more

27%

Rotherham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

E. Turns

Exeter City · D

8.2

Match Events

45'

R. James

56'

A. Hartridge

64'

T. Yogane← D. Mitchell

64'

I. Niskanen← P. Jones

64'

C. Watts← E. Francis

70'

Caleb Watts

76'

J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode← S. McWilliams

79'

J. Aitchison← J. Colwill

88'

L. Sibley← J. Powell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamExeter

Overview

57%Possession43%

24Total Shots12

7Corners8

6Fouls7

Shots

24Total Shots12

9On Target3

7Off Target5

8Blocked4

15Inside Box10

9Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

387Total Passes292

269Accurate Passes179

70%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

6Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0