Rotherham 4–2 Charlton: Result & Stats | League One

Rotherham

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Charlton

M. Wilks 53'

Z. Jules 45+4'

A. MacDonald 14'

A. Green 9'

M. Godden 90+2'

M. Leaburn 45'

1/18/2025

League One · Round 27AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Rotherham43%

×Draw26%

Charlton31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.21

Rotherham

1.47

Charlton

1.21

Rotherham creates 21% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 143 away

1.70

creates per match

1.22

1.21

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Rotherham

1.70

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Rotherham

1.21

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

69%

Rotherham or Charlton

74%

Draw or Charlton

57%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

21%

Charlton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

77%

Rotherham 2+ goals

43%

Rotherham 3+ goals

18%

Charlton 1+ goals

70%

Charlton 2+ goals

34%

Charlton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

58%

Charlton (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.21 · 96 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.70 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.47

Charlton attack 1.22 + Rotherham defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rotherham scores more

43%

level

26%

Charlton scores more

31%

Rotherham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Green

Rotherham · F

9.9

Match Events

9'

A. Green↳ M. Wilks

14'

A. MacDonald↳ A. Green

19'

C. Bramall← S. McWilliams

45+4'

Conor Coventry

45'

M. Leaburn↳ G. Docherty

45+4'

46'

53'

61'

61'

K. Anderson← M. Leaburn

72'

78'

79'

83'

84'

A. Campbell← C. Coventry

90+3'

J. Holmes← M. Wilks

90+2'

M. Godden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamCharlton

Overview

52%Possession48%

22Total Shots10

4Corners1

10Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots10

8On Target5

9Off Target3

5Blocked2

16Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

332Total Passes300

178Accurate Passes183

54%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2