Charlton 1–1 Rotherham: Result & Stats | League One

Charlton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rotherham

C. Washington 83'

M. Miller 45+2'

11/2/2021

League One · Round 12The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Charlton43%

×Draw27%

Rotherham31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

Charlton

1.40

Rotherham

1.14

Charlton creates 23% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 99 away

1.65

creates per match

1.15

1.13

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Rotherham

1.15

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Rotherham

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

69%

Charlton or Rotherham

73%

Draw or Rotherham

57%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

20%

Rotherham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

75%

Charlton 2+ goals

41%

Charlton 3+ goals

17%

Rotherham 1+ goals

68%

Rotherham 2+ goals

32%

Rotherham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

58%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlton scores more

43%

level

27%

Rotherham scores more

31%

Charlton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Barlaser

Rotherham · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

40'

42'

44'

45+2'

50'

59'

C. Ogbene← M. Ihiekwe

68'

S. Ferguson← M. Miller

80'

C. Blackett-Taylor← D. Jaiyesimi

82'

83'

84'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonRotherham

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots12

3Corners8

10Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots12

7On Target3

3Off Target6

1Blocked3

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

278Total Passes284

152Accurate Passes171

55%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls18

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Charlton vs Rotherham

Charlton and Rotherham drew 1-1 in League One on November 2, 2021.

Goals: M. Miller (45+2'), C. Washington (83').

Rotherham controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Valley in London.

Charlton vs Rotherham — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Charlton vs Rotherham