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Rotherham vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
H. Douglas 90'
T. Sibbick 69' (OG)
T. Shade 63'
K. Lofthouse 51'
11/4/2025League OneLeague One · Round 4Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham41%
×Draw24%
Burton Albion35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.59
Burton Albion
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.55
Burton Albion
1.32

allows per match

Rotherham
1.61
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Rotherham-0.55scores less
Burton Albion-0.21scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
65%
Rotherham or Burton Albion
76%
Draw or Burton Albion
59%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
20%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
80%
Rotherham 2+ goals
47%
Rotherham 3+ goals
21%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
77%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
43%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
53%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.55 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Burton Albion attack 1.32 + Rotherham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rotherham scores more
41%
level
24%
Burton Albion scores more
35%

Rotherham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
H. DouglasRotherhamRotherham · D
8.2

Match Events

46'
M. Sherif← S. McWilliams
51'
K. Lofthouse↳ C. Webster
63'
T. Shade↳ J. Beesley
69'
Toby Sibbick
69'
T. SibbickOwn goal
71'
J. Benson← D. Hall
76'
Tyrese Shade
83'
F. Tavares← T. Shade
84'
Bradley Collins
90+6'
L. Agbaire← K. Spence
90+2'
J. Hugill← R. James
90+3'
J. Moon← C. Webster
90'
H. Douglas↳ J. Benson

Possession

62%Rotherham

Shots

11Rotherham

Pass accuracy

52%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamBurton
Overview
62%Possession38%
11Total Shots15
5Corners3
12Fouls4
Shots
11Total Shots15
3On Target6
5Off Target3
3Blocked6
7Inside Box9
4Outside Box6
Passing
62%Possession38%
444Total Passes285
346Accurate Passes202
78%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls4
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Burton Albion

Rotherham and Burton Albion drew 2-2 in League One on November 4, 2025.

Goals: K. Lofthouse (51'), T. Shade (63'), T. Sibbick (69' o.g.), H. Douglas (90').

Rotherham controlled possession (62%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Aesseal New York Stadium in Rotherham.