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Burton Albion vs Rotherham — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
2/17/2026League OneLeague One · Round 33Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion43%
×Draw28%
Rotherham28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.27
Rotherham
0.97

Burton Albion creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Rotherham
0.99

allows per match

Burton Albion
0.95
Rotherham
1.26

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par
Rotherham+0.01on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
72%
Burton Albion or Rotherham
72%
Draw or Rotherham
57%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
19%
Rotherham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
72%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
36%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%
Rotherham 1+ goals
62%
Rotherham 2+ goals
25%
Rotherham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
60%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.26 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Rotherham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rotherham attack 0.99 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burton Albion scores more
43%
level
28%
Rotherham scores more
28%

Burton Albion at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Burton Albion 1–0 Rotherham

Burton Albion beat Rotherham 1-0 in League One on February 17, 2026.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton upon Trent.