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Rotherham vs Brentford — Championship 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Brentford
Brentford
I. Toney 82' (pen)
M. Forss 57'
12/1/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rotherham32%
×Draw26%
Brentford42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.20
Brentford
1.41

Brentford creates 18% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 70 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.30
Brentford
1.41

allows per match

Rotherham
1.41
Brentford
1.10

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
58%
Rotherham or Brentford
74%
Draw or Brentford
68%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
13%
Brentford wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
70%
Rotherham 2+ goals
34%
Rotherham 3+ goals
12%
Brentford 1+ goals
76%
Brentford 2+ goals
41%
Brentford 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
43%
Brentford (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.41 · 92 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.30 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Brentford attack 1.41 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rotherham scores more
32%
level
26%
Brentford scores more
42%

Brentford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
I. ToneyBrentfordBrentford · F
8.5

Match Events

22'
Matt Crooks
48'
Richard Wood
57'
M. Forss↳ I. Toney
71'
M. Miller← J. Mattock
71'
F. Jozefzoon← M. Olosunde
72'
Mikel Miller
73'
Angus MacDonald
74'
Sergi Canós← B. Mbeumo
79'
E. Marcondes← J. Dasilva
80'
G. Hirst← F. Ladapo
80'
K. Vassell← J. Lindsay
82'
Mikel Miller
82'
Mikel Miller
82'
I. ToneyPenalty
87'
S. Ghoddos← M. Forss
87'
A. Presley← I. Toney

Possession

37%Rotherham

Shots

8Rotherham

Pass accuracy

45%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamBrentford
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots10
6Corners3
21Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots10
2On Target4
3Off Target3
3Blocked3
6Inside Box9
2Outside Box1
Passing
37%Possession63%
240Total Passes423
150Accurate Passes328
63%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
21Fouls10
5Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
1Offsides6

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Brentford

Brentford beat Rotherham 2-0 in Championship on December 1, 2020.

Goals: M. Forss (57'), I. Toney (82' pen).

Brentford controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.