Rotherham 2–4 Brentford: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Brentford

E. Konsa 73' (OG)

J. Taylor 20'

N. Maupay 85'

K. Mokotjo 75', 2'

S. Benrahma 53'

1/19/2019

Championship · Round 28New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rotherham32%

×Draw26%

Brentford42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.41

Rotherham

1.20

Brentford

1.41

Brentford creates 18% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 70 away

1.30

creates per match

1.41

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Rotherham

1.30

Brentford

1.41

allows per match

Rotherham

1.41

Brentford

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

58%

Rotherham or Brentford

74%

Draw or Brentford

68%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

13%

Brentford wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

70%

Rotherham 2+ goals

34%

Rotherham 3+ goals

12%

Brentford 1+ goals

76%

Brentford 2+ goals

41%

Brentford 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

43%

Brentford (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.41 · 92 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.30 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Brentford attack 1.41 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rotherham scores more

32%

level

26%

Brentford scores more

42%

Brentford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

S. Benrahma

Brentford · F

8.6

Match Events

2'

K. Mokotjo↳ S. Benrahma

20'

J. Taylor

53'

S. Benrahma↳ R. Sawyers

59'

M. Crooks← B. Wiles

73'

E. KonsaOwn goal

75'

K. Mokotjo↳ R. Henry

76'

Sergi Canós← S. Benrahma

78'

J. Yates← Z. Vyner

80'

Jerry Yates

85'

N. Maupay↳ Sergi Canós

86'

K. Vassell← A. Forde

88'

J. Dasilva← K. Mokotjo

88'

C. Ogbene← O. Watkins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamBrentford

Overview

35%Possession65%

14Total Shots15

5Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots15

4On Target7

7Off Target5

3Blocked3

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

282Total Passes556

179Accurate Passes456

63%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0