Rotherham 1–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Aston Villa

W. Vaulks 36' (pen)

J. Grealish 51'

J. Kodjia 48' (pen)

4/10/2019

Championship · Round 41New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Rotherham29%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.48

Rotherham

1.15

Aston Villa

1.48

Aston Villa creates 29% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 24 away

1.30

creates per match

1.54

1.41

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rotherham

1.30

Aston Villa

1.54

allows per match

Rotherham

1.41

Aston Villa

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Aston Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

55%

Rotherham or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

71%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

12%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

68%

Rotherham 2+ goals

32%

Rotherham 3+ goals

11%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

77%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

43%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

40%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.41 · 92 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.30 + Aston Villa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Aston Villa attack 1.54 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rotherham scores more

29%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

45%

Aston Villa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Grealish

Aston Villa · M

8.0

Match Events

18'

Tyrone Mings

34'

Tyrone Mings

34'

Tyrone Mings

36'

W. VaulksPenalty

37'

M. Jedinak← A. Adomah

46'

J. Kodjia← A. El Ghazi

47'

Semi Ajayi

48'

J. KodjiaPenalty

51'

J. Grealish↳ Ahmed El Mohamady

61'

Joe Mattock

68'

B. Wiles← R. Towell

75'

Will Vaulks

77'

K. Vassell← M. Ihiekwe

84'

R. Williams← J. Taylor

90'

Tammy Abraham

90+3'

G. Whelan← J. Grealish

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamAston

Overview

47%Possession53%

19Total Shots15

8Corners7

17Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots15

6On Target8

8Off Target5

5Blocked2

11Inside Box12

8Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

275Total Passes311

185Accurate Passes232

67%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

–Red Cards1

2Offsides2