Aston Villa 2–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rotherham

Y. Bolasie 82'

T. Abraham 27'

9/18/2018

Championship · Round 8Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Aston Villa55%

×Draw23%

Rotherham23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.13

Aston Villa

1.87

Rotherham

1.13

Aston Villa creates 65% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 90 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

1.58

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Aston Villa

2.00

Rotherham

0.67

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.58

Rotherham

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aston Villa+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

77%

Aston Villa or Rotherham

77%

Draw or Rotherham

45%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

31%

Rotherham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

85%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

56%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

29%

Rotherham 1+ goals

68%

Rotherham 2+ goals

31%

Rotherham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

70%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 2.00 + Rotherham defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.87

Rotherham attack 0.67 + Aston Villa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aston Villa scores more

55%

level

23%

Rotherham scores more

23%

Aston Villa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

J. Kodjia

Aston Villa · F

7.8

Match Events

27'

T. Abraham↳ J. Kodjia

37'

Anwar El Ghazi

59'

J. Taylor← K. Vassell

65'

Semi Ajayi

68'

Tammy Abraham

68'

J. Proctor← R. Manning

73'

Joe Mattock

73'

Y. Bolasie← A. El Ghazi

76'

A. Forde← R. Williams

81'

A. Adomah← J. Kodjia

82'

Y. Bolasie↳ Ahmed El Mohamady

86'

J. Bree← T. Abraham

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonRotherham

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots13

3Corners3

9Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots13

4On Target3

8Off Target8

2Blocked2

11Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

437Total Passes298

353Accurate Passes196

81%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0