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Rota vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Rota
Rota
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
10/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 7Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rota50%
×Draw25%
Atlético Espeleño26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rota
1.61
Atlético Espeleño
1.08

Rota creates 49% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 49 away

creates per match

Rota
1.33
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Rota
1.24
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Rota+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rota ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rota or draw
74%
Rota or Atlético Espeleño
75%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
50%

Winning margin

Rota wins by 2+
26%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rota 1+ goals
80%
Rota 2+ goals
48%
Rota 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rota (draw refunded)
66%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rota at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rota attack 1.33 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Rota defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rota scores more
50%
level
25%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
26%

Rota at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Rota 2–0 Atlético Espeleño

Rota beat Atlético Espeleño 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores in Rota.