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Atlético Espeleño vs Rota — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rota
Rota
2/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 22Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Atlético Espeleño54%
×Draw25%
Rota21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Espeleño
1.62
Rota
0.92

Atlético Espeleño creates 76% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 57 away

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.35
Rota
0.67

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.16
Rota
1.89

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par
Rota+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

Rota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw
79%
Atlético Espeleño or Rota
75%
Draw or Rota
46%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
29%
Rota wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
80%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
48%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
22%
Rota 1+ goals
60%
Rota 2+ goals
23%
Rota 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
72%
Rota (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Rota away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.89 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + Rota defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rota attack 0.67 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more
54%
level
25%
Rota scores more
21%

Atlético Espeleño at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Espeleño 3–1 Rota

Atlético Espeleño beat Rota 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.