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Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs TSV Steinbach — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rot-weiss Oberhausen37%
×Draw20%
TSV Steinbach42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
2.01
TSV Steinbach
2.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
2.20
TSV Steinbach
2.09

allows per match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen
2.20
TSV Steinbach
1.82

finishing

Rot-weiss Oberhausen+0.00on par
TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-weiss Oberhausen ↓

TSV Steinbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Rot-weiss Oberhausen or draw
58%
Rot-weiss Oberhausen or TSV Steinbach
80%
Draw or TSV Steinbach
63%

Winning margin

Rot-weiss Oberhausen wins by 2+
20%
TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Rot-weiss Oberhausen 1+ goals
87%
Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2+ goals
59%
Rot-weiss Oberhausen 3+ goals
32%
TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
88%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
63%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Rot-weiss Oberhausen (draw refunded)
47%
TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-weiss Oberhausen at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen attack 2.20 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.01

TSV Steinbach attack 2.09 + Rot-weiss Oberhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rot-weiss Oberhausen scores more
37%
level
20%
TSV Steinbach scores more
42%

TSV Steinbach at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs TSV Steinbach

TSV Steinbach beat Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.