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Rot-weiss Essen vs Emmen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rot-weiss Essen
Rot-weiss Essen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Emmen
Emmen
J. Endres 53'
8/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hasetal-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rot-weiss Essen52%
×Draw19%
Emmen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-weiss Essen
2.56
Emmen
1.88

Rot-weiss Essen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rot-weiss Essen
3.25
Emmen
1.75

allows per match

Rot-weiss Essen
2.00
Emmen
1.88

finishing

Rot-weiss Essen+0.00on par
Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-weiss Essen ↓

Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Rot-weiss Essen or draw
71%
Rot-weiss Essen or Emmen
81%
Draw or Emmen
48%

Winning margin

Rot-weiss Essen wins by 2+
33%
Emmen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rot-weiss Essen 1+ goals
92%
Rot-weiss Essen 2+ goals
72%
Rot-weiss Essen 3+ goals
46%
Emmen 1+ goals
85%
Emmen 2+ goals
56%
Emmen 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Rot-weiss Essen (draw refunded)
65%
Emmen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-weiss Essen at home — creates 3.25, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-weiss Essen attack 3.25 + Emmen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.56

Emmen attack 1.75 + Rot-weiss Essen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rot-weiss Essen scores more
52%
level
19%
Emmen scores more
29%

Rot-weiss Essen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rot-weiss Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
J. Endres

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Rot-weiss Essen 1–0 Emmen

Rot-weiss Essen beat Emmen 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 29, 2020.

Goals: J. Endres (53').

The match was played at Hasetal-Stadion in Herzlake.