Rot-Weiß Essen 5–2 Emmen: Result & Stats

Rot-Weiß Essen

FT

5 – 2

HT: 4 – 2

Emmen

D. Berisha 79'

J. Rios Alonso 33'

K. Owusu 29'

J. Boyamba 8'

M. Doumbouya 6'

M. te Wierik 40'

A. Bakir 4'

1/5/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion an der Hafenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rot-Weiß Essen52%

×Draw19%

Emmen29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiß EssenExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.88

Rot-Weiß Essen

2.56

Emmen

1.88

Rot-Weiß Essen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

3.25

creates per match

1.75

2.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Essen

3.25

Emmen

1.75

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Essen

2.00

Emmen

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiß Essen+0.00on par

Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Essen ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Essen or draw

71%

Rot-Weiß Essen or Emmen

81%

Draw or Emmen

48%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Essen wins by 2+

33%

Emmen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Essen 1+ goals

92%

Rot-Weiß Essen 2+ goals

72%

Rot-Weiß Essen 3+ goals

46%

Emmen 1+ goals

85%

Emmen 2+ goals

56%

Emmen 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Essen (draw refunded)

65%

Emmen (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Essen at home — creates 3.25, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Essen attack 3.25 + Emmen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.56

Emmen attack 1.75 + Rot-Weiß Essen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rot-Weiß Essen scores more

52%

level

19%

Emmen scores more

29%

Rot-Weiß Essen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

6'

8'

29'

33'

40'

79'

Rot-Weiß

Emmen

Manager: Uwe Koschinat

Manager: Menno van Dam