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Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Preußen Münster U19
Preußen Münster U19
2/15/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1947%
×Draw22%
Preußen Münster U1932%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.98
Preußen Münster U19
1.60

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.96
Preußen Münster U19
1.63

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.58
Preußen Münster U19
2.00

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par
Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw
68%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Preußen Münster U19
78%
Draw or Preußen Münster U19
53%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+
26%
Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals
86%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals
59%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals
31%
Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals
80%
Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals
47%
Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more
47%
level
22%
Preußen Münster U19 scores more
32%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Rot-Weiss
Preußen
S. Hohenberg
Manager: S. Hohenberg
J. Hötting
Manager: J. Hötting

Match Recap: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 and Preußen Münster U19 drew 3-3 in U19 Bundesliga on February 15, 2026.