Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1–3 Preußen Münster U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Preußen Münster U19

E. Reck 49'

D. Krevsun 74', 33'

T. Hausotter 57'

10/9/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 6Sportpark Am Hallo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1946%

×Draw22%

Preußen Münster U1932%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.61

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Preußen Münster U19

1.61

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

1.96

creates per match

1.65

1.58

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Preußen Münster U19

1.65

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Preußen Münster U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

68%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Preußen Münster U19

78%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

54%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

26%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

86%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

58%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

31%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

80%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

48%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.96

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

46%

level

22%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

32%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

D. Krevsun

46'

E. Reck← T. Kuhlmann

49'

E. Reck

56'

D. Kocagöz← C. Demircan

57'

T. Hausotter

60'

F. Munu← E. Theocharis

70'

M. Pehlivan← D. Tchadjobo

70'

S. Sarrafyar← J. Häusler

74'

D. Krevsun

78'

V. Kulinich← A. Osmani

79'

B. Fallbrock← P. Pinto

79'

M. Kruphölter← D. Krevsun

84'

S. Becker← B. Kronenberg

Rot-Weiss

Preußen

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Tokat

46'▲E. Reck←▼T. Kuhlmann

56'▲D. Kocagöz←▼C. Demircan

60'▲F. Munu←▼E. Theocharis

78'▲V. Kulinich←▼A. Osmani

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

ReckKocagözMunuKulinichSwajkowskiSombetzkiAdemi

Manager: T. Harink

70'▲M. Pehlivan←▼D. Tchadjobo

70'▲S. Sarrafyar←▼J. Häusler

79'▲B. Fallbrock←▼P. Pinto

79'▲M. Kruphölter←▼D. Krevsun

84'▲S. Becker←▼B. Kronenberg

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

PehlivanSarrafyarFallbrockKruphölterBeckerPapenfortAlter

Match Recap: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 9, 2022.

Goals: D. Krevsun (33', 74'), E. Reck (49'), T. Hausotter (57').

The match was played at Sportpark Am Hallo in Essen.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19