Rot-Weiss Essen U19 4–3 Paderborn U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Paderborn U19

Y. Friessner Montas 81'

Y. Pirnal 60'

K. Kaya 45+1'

B. Berzen 11'

J. Nwofor 30' (OG)

F. Babak 27'

M. Theiß 14' (pen)

2/22/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 4Bezirkssportanlage Mitte II Rasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1939%

×Draw22%

Paderborn U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchPaderborn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.86

Paderborn U19

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

1.96

creates per match

2.15

1.58

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Paderborn U19

2.15

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Paderborn U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

61%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Paderborn U19

78%

Draw or Paderborn U19

61%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

21%

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

84%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

55%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

28%

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

84%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

55%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.86

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

39%

level

22%

Paderborn U19 scores more

39%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

B. Berzen

14'

M. TheißPenalty

27'

F. Babak

30'

J. NwoforOwn goal

33'

B. Charkaoui← J. Nwo

45+1'

K. Kaya

46'

Y. Friessner Montas← S. Gawryluk

46'

A. Altay← C. Agirayak

55'

G. Youbi← R. Nakuzola

60'

Y. Pirnal

75'

B. Özbek← M. Barry

75'

M. Dzhelilov← B. Berzen

75'

Z. Elhankouri← K. Kaya

77'

F. Meyer← A. Špago

81'

Y. Friessner Montas

83'

K. George← M. Theiß

83'

M. Runte← Pedro Restrepo Naranjo

Rot-Weiss

Paderborn

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Berzen

⚽

▼

Kaya

Manager: S. Hohenberg

33'▲B. Charkaoui←▼J. Nwo

46'▲Y. Friessner Montas←▼S. Gawryluk

55'▲G. Youbi←▼R. Nakuzola

75'▲B. Özbek←▼M. Barry

75'▲M. Dzhelilov←▼B. Berzen

75'▲Z. Elhankouri←▼K. Kaya

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

CharkaouiMontasYoubiÖzbekDzhelilovElhankouriKoch

Manager: I. Kalkan

46'▲A. Altay←▼C. Agirayak

77'▲F. Meyer←▼A. Špago

83'▲K. George←▼M. Theiß

83'▲M. Runte←▼Pedro Restrepo Naranjo

Paderborn U19 substitutes

AltayMeyerGeorgeRunteJukaSchiano