Paderborn U19 1–1 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Paderborn U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

J. Markötter 32'

B. Özbek 20'

4/26/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 11Sportpark Breite Bruch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Paderborn U1964%

×Draw19%

Rot-Weiss Essen U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiss Essen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.14

Paderborn U19

2.38

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.14

Paderborn U19 creates 109% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 54 away

2.34

creates per match

0.96

1.32

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

0.96

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

83%

Paderborn U19 or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

81%

Draw or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

36%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

42%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

91%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

68%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

42%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

68%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

32%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.38

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 0.96 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

64%

level

19%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

17%

Paderborn U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

32'

55'

55'

64'

M. Dzhelilov← S. Calik

74'

F. Meyer← M. Theiß

77'

E. Gündoğdu← J. Markötter

87'

F. Jurisic← Z. Elhankouri

88'

M. Runte← K. George

Paderborn

Rot-Weiss

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Markötter

▼

George

Altay

Manager: I. Kalkan

74'▲F. Meyer←▼M. Theiß

77'▲E. Gündoğdu←▼J. Markötter

88'▲M. Runte←▼K. George

Paderborn U19 substitutes

MeyerGündoğduRunteObertrifterAgirayakKerlenJuka

Manager: S. Hohenberg

55'▲J. Gnagnon←▼M. Barry

55'▲K. Kaya←▼R. Nakuzola

64'▲M. Dzhelilov←▼S. Calik

87'▲F. Jurisic←▼Z. Elhankouri

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

GnagnonKayaDzhelilovJurisicYoubiKochGawryluk

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 1–1 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Paderborn U19 and Rot-Weiss Essen U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 26, 2025.

Goals: B. Özbek (20'), J. Markötter (32').

The match was played at Sportpark Breite Bruch in Paderborn.

Paderborn U19 vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 1–1 Rot-Weiss Essen U19