Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1–3 Meerbusch U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Meerbusch U19

L. Bittner 45+2'

D. Gyamfi 90+8'

I. Özel 73'

J. Ilunga 29'

11/30/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 13Bezirkssportanlage Mitte II Rasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1955%

×Draw21%

Meerbusch U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchMeerbusch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.36

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.13

Meerbusch U19

1.36

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 14 away

1.96

creates per match

1.14

1.58

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Meerbusch U19

1.14

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Meerbusch U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Meerbusch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

76%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Meerbusch U19

79%

Draw or Meerbusch U19

45%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

33%

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

88%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

63%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

35%

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

74%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

39%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Meerbusch U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.13

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.14 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Meerbusch U19 scores more

24%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

J. Ilunga

45+2'

L. Bittner

60'

D. Gyamfi← Y. El Kandri

62'

G. Youbi← R. Nakuzola

70'

F. Breuer← J. Gaudian

70'

73'

74'

74'

77'

77'

Y. Zeller← J. Asamoah

90+2'

K. Kaya← S. Gawryluk

90+2'

T. Hilligloh← L. Bittner

90+8'

D. Gyamfi

Rot-Weiss

Meerbusch

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Hohenberg

62'▲G. Youbi←▼R. Nakuzola

74'▲B. Berzen←▼L. Chen

74'▲M. Barry←▼L. Drießen

90+2'▲K. Kaya←▼S. Gawryluk

90+2'▲T. Hilligloh←▼L. Bittner

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

YoubiBerzenBarryKayaHilliglohKaratzidisKoch

Manager: D. Granata

60'▲D. Gyamfi←▼Y. El Kandri

70'▲F. Breuer←▼J. Gaudian

70'▲I. Özel←▼V. Habarov

77'▲T. Behle←▼I. Özel

77'▲Y. Zeller←▼J. Asamoah

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

GyamfiBreuerÖzelBehleZellerEstradaWegmann

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1–3 Meerbusch U19

Meerbusch U19 beat Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 30, 2024.

Goals: J. Ilunga (29'), L. Bittner (45+2'), I. Özel (73'), D. Gyamfi (90+8').

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Mitte II Rasenplatz in Essen.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Meerbusch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1–3 Meerbusch U19