Meerbusch U19 1–2 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Meerbusch U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

N. Gergorec 56'

G. Acurero 82', 30'

9/15/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 6Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meerbusch U1937%

×Draw21%

Rot-Weiss Essen U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meerbusch U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiss Essen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.95

Meerbusch U19

1.82

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 54 away

1.21

creates per match

0.96

2.93

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Meerbusch U19

1.21

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

0.96

allows per match

Meerbusch U19

2.93

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch U19 ↓

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Meerbusch U19 or draw

58%

Meerbusch U19 or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

79%

Draw or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

63%

Winning margin

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

19%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

84%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

54%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

27%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

86%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

58%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.21 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.82

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 0.96 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Meerbusch U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

42%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

G. Acurero

56'

N. Gergorec

59'

C. Venos← D. Aserov

59'

D. Gyamfi← J. Asamoah

70'

L. Bittner← P. Rogasik

70'

S. Gawryluk← Y. Friessner Montas

76'

K. Mischtal← V. Habarov

79'

Z. Elhankouri← M. Dzhelilov

81'

P. Müller← J. Gaudian

82'

G. Acurero

85'

F. Jurisic← R. Nakuzola

85'

M. Barry← K. Kaya

Meerbusch

Rot-Weiss

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Granata

59'▲C. Venos←▼D. Aserov

59'▲D. Gyamfi←▼J. Asamoah

76'▲K. Mischtal←▼V. Habarov

81'▲P. Müller←▼J. Gaudian

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

VenosGyamfiMischtalMüllerZaunbrecherGrabekZeller

Manager: S. Hohenberg

70'▲L. Bittner←▼P. Rogasik

70'▲S. Gawryluk←▼Y. Friessner Montas

79'▲Z. Elhankouri←▼M. Dzhelilov

85'▲F. Jurisic←▼R. Nakuzola

85'▲M. Barry←▼K. Kaya

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

BittnerGawrylukElhankouriJurisicBarryYoubiKoch