Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2–2 Borussia Dortmund U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Borussia Dortmund U19

J. Nwofor 90'

J. Gnagnon 35'

M. Albert 90'

T. Faust 49'

9/21/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 7Bezirkssportanlage Mitte II Rasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1929%

×Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund U1949%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.08

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.57

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.08

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 66 away

1.96

creates per match

2.59

1.58

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.59

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

51%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

79%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

71%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

14%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

79%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

46%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

21%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

87%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

61%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.57

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.59 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

29%

level

21%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

49%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

J. Gnagnon

49'

T. Faust

90'

M. Albert

90'

J. Nwofor

Rot-Weiss

Borussia

Manager: S. Hohenberg

Manager: Felix Hirschnagl