Rot-Weiss Essen U19 0–1 Borussia Dortmund U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Borussia Dortmund U19

N. Cherny 57'

9/27/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 8Bezirkssportanlage Mitte II Rasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1929%

×Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund U1950%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.10

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.56

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.10

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 65 away

1.96

creates per match

2.62

1.58

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.62

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

50%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

79%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

71%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

13%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

79%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

46%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

21%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

88%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

62%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.56

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.62 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

29%

level

21%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

50%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

A. Niziołek← T. Degener

56'

M. Kaba← L. Reggiani

57'

N. Cherny

63'

J. Riedl← Ousmane Diallo

64'

Y. Friessner Montas← B. Berzen

76'

K. Kaya← M. Barry

76'

P. Rogasik← G. Youbi

76'

S. Gawryluk← M. Dzhelilov

80'

J. Hoy← S. Inácio

86'

B. Özbek← N. Schulte-Kellinghaus

86'

R. Nakuzola← Z. Elhankouri

Rot-Weiss

Borussia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Hohenberg

64'▲Y. Friessner Montas←▼B. Berzen

76'▲K. Kaya←▼M. Barry

76'▲P. Rogasik←▼G. Youbi

76'▲S. Gawryluk←▼M. Dzhelilov

86'▲B. Özbek←▼N. Schulte-Kellinghaus

86'▲R. Nakuzola←▼Z. Elhankouri

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

MontasKayaRogasikGawrylukÖzbekNakuzolaKoch

Manager: M. Tullberg

56'▲A. Niziołek←▼T. Degener

56'▲M. Kaba←▼L. Reggiani

63'▲J. Riedl←▼Ousmane Diallo

80'▲J. Hoy←▼S. Inácio

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

NiziołekKabaRiedlHoyAvereschBłaszczykCena