Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2–2 Bochum U19: Result & Stats

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Bochum U19

J. Quarshie 22'

T. Kesim 11'

M. Pannewig 51'

F. Berisha 24'

9/26/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 3Sportpark Am Hallo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1937%

×Draw22%

Bochum U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchBochum U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.85

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.75

Bochum U19

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 65 away

2.02

creates per match

2.17

1.53

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.02

Bochum U19

2.17

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.53

Bochum U19

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

59%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Bochum U19

78%

Draw or Bochum U19

63%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

19%

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

83%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

52%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

25%

Bochum U19 1+ goals

84%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

55%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.48 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 2.02 + Bochum U19 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bochum U19 attack 2.17 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

37%

level

22%

Bochum U19 scores more

41%

Bochum U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

T. Kesim

22'

J. Quarshie

24'

F. Berisha

29'

Josue Santo← A. Golubytskij

51'

M. Pannewig

68'

V. Cetin← E. Theocharis

73'

D. Wasilewski← L. Tasov

73'

79'

79'

86'

90'

A. Argenziano← Y. Oguz

Rot-Weiss

Bochum

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Kesim

Kowalski

▼

Theochari

Manager: V. Wagner

68'▲V. Cetin←▼E. Theocharis

79'▲A. Osmani←▼B. Heuser

79'▲L. Kryeziu←▼T. Kesim

86'▲M. Karkar←▼E. Güzel

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

CetinOsmaniKryeziuKarkarMohammedSombetzkiAydemir

Manager: H. Butscher

29'▲Josue Santo←▼A. Golubytskij

73'▲D. Wasilewski←▼L. Tasov

73'▲L. Fava←▼F. Berisha

90'▲A. Argenziano←▼Y. Oguz

Bochum U19 substitutes

SantoWasilewskiFavaArgenzianoKotyrbaMunuTersteeg

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2–2 Bochum U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 and Bochum U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 26, 2021.

Goals: T. Kesim (11'), J. Quarshie (22'), F. Berisha (24'), M. Pannewig (51').

The match was played at Sportpark Am Hallo in Essen.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Bochum U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2–2 Bochum U19