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Bochum U19 vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bochum U19
Bochum U19
CANC
10:00
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
2/7/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 11Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Bochum U1963%
×Draw19%
Rot-Weiss Essen U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bochum U19
2.35
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.19

Bochum U19 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 46 away

creates per match

Bochum U19
2.36
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.00

allows per match

Bochum U19
1.39
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
2.35

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par
Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw
82%
Bochum U19 or Rot-Weiss Essen U19
81%
Draw or Rot-Weiss Essen U19
37%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+
41%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals
90%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
68%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
41%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals
70%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals
33%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.35

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.00 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bochum U19 scores more
63%
level
19%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more
18%

Bochum U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bochum U19 vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 — Match Preview

Bochum U19 face Rot-Weiss Essen U19 on February 7, 2021 in this U19 Bundesliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bochum U19 host Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.