Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arminia Bielefeld U19

S. Skuppin 70'

Ismail Remmo 51'

N. Flock 58'

10/30/2016

U19 Bundesliga · West - 10Sportpark Am Hallo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1949%

×Draw22%

Arminia Bielefeld U1929%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.51

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.01

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.51

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 62 away

1.96

creates per match

1.44

1.58

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

71%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

78%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

51%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

28%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

87%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

59%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

32%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

78%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

44%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.01

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

49%

level

22%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

29%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Ismail Remmo

58'

N. Flock

70'

S. Skuppin

71'

K. Schmidt← R. Mendes

77'

Mohammad Jaddoua← M. Ilg

78'

S. Neuse← D. Matondo

84'

T. Fraedrich← M. Cingöz

86'

T. Krasnici← J. Ceka

88'

M. Kositzki← B. Ekinjier

90+2'

N. da Costa Pereira← E. Keskin

Rot-Weiss

Arminia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: D. Apfeld

78'▲S. Neuse←▼D. Matondo

86'▲T. Krasnici←▼J. Ceka

88'▲M. Kositzki←▼B. Ekinjier

90+2'▲N. da Costa Pereira←▼E. Keskin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

NeuseKrasniciKositzkiPereiraBasarCanRadojewski

Manager: C. Rump

71'▲K. Schmidt←▼R. Mendes

77'▲Mohammad Jaddoua←▼M. Ilg

84'▲T. Fraedrich←▼M. Cingöz

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

SchmidtJaddouaFraedrichDoganÖzkanWestphalS.Winter

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 30, 2016.

Goals: Ismail Remmo (51'), N. Flock (58'), S. Skuppin (70').

The match was played at Sportpark Am Hallo in Essen.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld U19