Arminia Bielefeld U19 4–0 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

S. Uçar 81'

D. Kaynak 64', 17'

N. Sewing 11' (pen)

4/9/2017

U19 Bundesliga · West - 23Böllhoff Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1954%

×Draw21%

Rot-Weiss Essen U1925%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia Bielefeld U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiss Essen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.32

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.04

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.32

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 54 away

1.66

creates per match

0.96

1.69

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.66

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

0.96

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.69

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw

75%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

79%

Draw or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

46%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

32%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

87%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

60%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

33%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

73%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

38%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.69 · 59 matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.66 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.04

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 0.96 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

54%

level

21%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

25%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

N. SewingPenalty

17'

D. Kaynak

61'

Mohammad Jaddoua← M. Cingöz

61'

R. Mendes← N. Flock

64'

D. Kaynak

65'

N. Köhler← D. Matondo

70'

H. Yildiz← C. Siya

70'

M. Möller← S. Skuppin

72'

O. Can← Ismail Remmo

81'

S. Uçar

82'

T. Fuhrmann← M. Ilg

Arminia

Rot-Weiss

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: U. Grauer

61'▲Mohammad Jaddoua←▼M. Cingöz

61'▲R. Mendes←▼N. Flock

70'▲H. Yildiz←▼C. Siya

82'▲T. Fuhrmann←▼M. Ilg

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

JaddouaMendesYildizFuhrmannDoganSchmidtWestphal

Manager: D. Apfeld

65'▲N. Köhler←▼D. Matondo

70'▲M. Möller←▼S. Skuppin

72'▲O. Can←▼Ismail Remmo

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

KöhlerMöllerCanRudolfKöhlerRadojewski

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 4–0 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Rot-Weiss Essen U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 9, 2017.

Goals: N. Sewing (11' pen), D. Kaynak (17', 64'), S. Uçar (81').

The match was played at Böllhoff Stadion in Bielefeld.

Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 4–0 Rot-Weiss Essen U19