Rot Weiss Ahlen 0–4 Preußen Münster II

Rot Weiss Ahlen

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Preußen Münster II

9/19/2025

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7Wersestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rot Weiss Ahlen32%

×Draw22%

Preußen Münster II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot Weiss AhlenExpected goals in this matchPreußen Münster II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.86

Rot Weiss Ahlen

1.52

Preußen Münster II

1.86

Preußen Münster II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 88 away

1.53

creates per match

1.72

2.00

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Rot Weiss Ahlen

1.53

Preußen Münster II

1.72

allows per match

Rot Weiss Ahlen

2.00

Preußen Münster II

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot Weiss Ahlen+0.00on par

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot Weiss Ahlen ↓

Preußen Münster II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rot Weiss Ahlen or draw

54%

Rot Weiss Ahlen or Preußen Münster II

78%

Draw or Preußen Münster II

68%

Winning margin

Rot Weiss Ahlen wins by 2+

15%

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Rot Weiss Ahlen 1+ goals

78%

Rot Weiss Ahlen 2+ goals

45%

Rot Weiss Ahlen 3+ goals

20%

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals

84%

Preußen Münster II 2+ goals

55%

Preußen Münster II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Rot Weiss Ahlen (draw refunded)

41%

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot Weiss Ahlen at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 36 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot Weiss Ahlen attack 1.53 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + Rot Weiss Ahlen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rot Weiss Ahlen scores more

32%

level

22%

Preußen Münster II scores more

46%

Preußen Münster II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff