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Rot Weiss Ahlen vs Preußen Münster II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rot Weiss Ahlen
Rot Weiss Ahlen
CANC
13:00
Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rot Weiss Ahlen68%
×Draw16%
Preußen Münster II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot Weiss Ahlen
2.75
Preußen Münster II
1.25

Rot Weiss Ahlen creates 120% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rot Weiss Ahlen
2.50
Preußen Münster II
2.00

allows per match

Rot Weiss Ahlen
0.50
Preußen Münster II
3.00

finishing

Rot Weiss Ahlen+0.00on par
Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot Weiss Ahlen ↓

Preußen Münster II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Rot Weiss Ahlen or draw
85%
Rot Weiss Ahlen or Preußen Münster II
84%
Draw or Preußen Münster II
32%

Winning margin

Rot Weiss Ahlen wins by 2+
47%
Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rot Weiss Ahlen 1+ goals
93%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 2+ goals
75%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 3+ goals
51%
Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
71%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
36%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rot Weiss Ahlen (draw refunded)
82%
Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot Weiss Ahlen at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot Weiss Ahlen attack 2.50 + Preußen Münster II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Preußen Münster II attack 2.00 + Rot Weiss Ahlen defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Rot Weiss Ahlen scores more
68%
level
16%
Preußen Münster II scores more
15%

Rot Weiss Ahlen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Rot Weiss Ahlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rot Weiss Ahlen vs Preußen Münster II — Match Preview

Rot Weiss Ahlen face Preußen Münster II on January 20, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rot Weiss Ahlen host Preußen Münster II at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.