Rot Weiss Ahlen vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Rot Weiss Ahlen56%
Concordia Wiemelhausen25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rot Weiss Ahlen creates 51% more chances
Season form · 36 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over78
- Under22
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes74
- No26
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rot Weiss Ahlen ↓
Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rot Weiss Ahlen at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 36 matches
Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rot Weiss Ahlen attack 1.53 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.48
Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Rot Weiss Ahlen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Rot Weiss Ahlen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Rot Weiss Ahlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
FC Gutersloh
Holzwickeder SC
Westfalia Rhynern
Sprockhovel
ASC Dortmund
Kaan-Marienborn
Meinerzhagen
Vreden
SG Wattenscheid 09
Sportfreunde Siegen
Preußen Münster II
Ennepetal
TuS Haltern
TuS Erndtebruck
Paderborn II
Schermbeck
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Eintracht Rheine
Victoria Clarholz
Westfalia Herne
Hammer SpVgIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Rot Weiss Ahlen host Concordia Wiemelhausen on Friday, 21 February 2025 at 19:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Westfalen 2020/2021 season.
Oberliga - Westfalen: Rot Weiss Ahlen 3–2 Concordia Wiemelhausen
Rot Weiss Ahlen beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 3-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 21, 2025.
Goals: D. Szmadrowski (3'), A. Uzunbas (57'), N. Ruppert (66'), T. Breuer (74'), B. Soares (87').
The match was played at Wersestadion in Ahlen.