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Concordia Wiemelhausen vs Rot Weiss Ahlen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Rot Weiss Ahlen
Rot Weiss Ahlen
9/8/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 5Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen43%
×Draw21%
Rot Weiss Ahlen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.13
Rot Weiss Ahlen
1.94

Concordia Wiemelhausen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.05
Rot Weiss Ahlen
1.40

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.47
Rot Weiss Ahlen
2.20

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par
Rot Weiss Ahlen+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

Rot Weiss Ahlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw
64%
Concordia Wiemelhausen or Rot Weiss Ahlen
79%
Draw or Rot Weiss Ahlen
57%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
25%
Rot Weiss Ahlen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
88%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
63%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
35%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 1+ goals
86%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 2+ goals
58%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
54%
Rot Weiss Ahlen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Rot Weiss Ahlen away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + Rot Weiss Ahlen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.13

Rot Weiss Ahlen attack 1.40 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
43%
level
21%
Rot Weiss Ahlen scores more
36%

Concordia Wiemelhausen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Concordia Wiemelhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Concordia Wiemelhausen 5–3 Rot Weiss Ahlen

Concordia Wiemelhausen beat Rot Weiss Ahlen 5-3 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen in Bochum.