Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rot-Weiß Walldorf vs Fernwald — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fernwald
Fernwald
3/10/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 23Kunstrasenplatz Mörfelden-Walldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rot-Weiß Walldorf46%
×Draw21%
Fernwald33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
2.05
Fernwald
1.72

Rot-Weiß Walldorf creates 19% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
2.55
Fernwald
1.86

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
1.57
Fernwald
1.56

finishing

Rot-Weiß Walldorf+0.00on par
Fernwald+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Walldorf ↓

Fernwald →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Walldorf or draw
67%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf or Fernwald
79%
Draw or Fernwald
54%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Walldorf wins by 2+
26%
Fernwald wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1+ goals
87%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf 2+ goals
61%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf 3+ goals
33%
Fernwald 1+ goals
82%
Fernwald 2+ goals
51%
Fernwald 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Walldorf (draw refunded)
58%
Fernwald (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Walldorf at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.57 · 93 matches

Fernwald away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.56 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf attack 2.55 + Fernwald defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.05

Fernwald attack 1.86 + Rot-Weiß Walldorf defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rot-Weiß Walldorf scores more
46%
level
21%
Fernwald scores more
33%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Walldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Rot-Weiß Walldorf 3–0 Fernwald

Rot-Weiß Walldorf beat Fernwald 3-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mörfelden-Walldorf in Mörfelden-Walldorf.