Fernwald 2–1 Rot-Weiß Walldorf: Result & Stats

Fernwald

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

2/15/2025

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 24Kunstrasenplatz Fernwald-Steinbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Fernwald46%

×Draw21%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FernwaldExpected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Walldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.67

Fernwald

2.02

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

1.67

Fernwald creates 21% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 93 away

2.12

creates per match

1.84

1.50

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Fernwald

2.12

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

1.84

allows per match

Fernwald

1.50

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernwald+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Walldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernwald ↓

Rot-Weiß Walldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Fernwald or draw

68%

Fernwald or Rot-Weiß Walldorf

79%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Walldorf

54%

Winning margin

Fernwald wins by 2+

26%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fernwald 1+ goals

87%

Fernwald 2+ goals

60%

Fernwald 3+ goals

33%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1+ goals

81%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 2+ goals

50%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Fernwald (draw refunded)

59%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernwald at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Rot-Weiß Walldorf away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernwald attack 2.12 + Rot-Weiß Walldorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.02

Rot-Weiß Walldorf attack 1.84 + Fernwald defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fernwald scores more

46%

level

21%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf scores more

32%

Fernwald at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fernwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff