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Rot-Weiß Walldorf vs FC 1906 Erlensee — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC 1906 Erlensee
FC 1906 Erlensee
9/30/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 12Kunstrasenplatz Mörfelden-Walldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Rot-Weiß Walldorf57%
×Draw20%
FC 1906 Erlensee23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
2.26
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.36

Rot-Weiß Walldorf creates 66% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 57 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
2.55
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.16

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
1.57
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.98

finishing

Rot-Weiß Walldorf+0.00on par
FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Walldorf ↓

FC 1906 Erlensee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Walldorf or draw
77%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf or FC 1906 Erlensee
80%
Draw or FC 1906 Erlensee
43%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Walldorf wins by 2+
36%
FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1+ goals
89%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf 2+ goals
66%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf 3+ goals
39%
FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals
74%
FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals
39%
FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Walldorf (draw refunded)
72%
FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Walldorf at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.57 · 93 matches

FC 1906 Erlensee away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf attack 2.55 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.26

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 1.16 + Rot-Weiß Walldorf defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rot-Weiß Walldorf scores more
57%
level
20%
FC 1906 Erlensee scores more
23%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Walldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1–0 FC 1906 Erlensee

Rot-Weiß Walldorf beat FC 1906 Erlensee 1-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mörfelden-Walldorf in Mörfelden-Walldorf.