FC 1906 Erlensee vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf — Oberliga - Hessen 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 56+ matches
FC 1906 Erlensee44%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC 1906 Erlensee creates 14% more chances
Season form · 56 home / 93 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over71
- Under29
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes71
- No29
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC 1906 Erlensee ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC 1906 Erlensee at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches
Rot-Weiß Walldorf away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC 1906 Erlensee attack 2.02 + Rot-Weiß Walldorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.97
Rot-Weiß Walldorf attack 1.84 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
FC 1906 Erlensee at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "FC 1906 Erlensee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
Hessen DreieichRot-Weiß Walldorf
Hanau 93
Friedberg
Hadamar
Waldgirmes
Buchonia Flieden
SV Zeilsheim
Fernwald
SV Steinbach
Baunatal
Bad Vilbel
Dietkirchen
Neuhof
Ginsheim
Viktoria Griesheim
Hünfelder SV
EddersheimFC 1906 ErlenseeIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FC 1906 Erlensee host Rot-Weiß Walldorf on Saturday, 10 December 2022 at 15:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Hessen 2020/2021 season.
Oberliga - Hessen: FC 1906 Erlensee 3–1 Rot-Weiß Walldorf
FC 1906 Erlensee beat Rot-Weiß Walldorf 3-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on December 10, 2022.
The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz KR1 Erlensee in Erlensee.