Rot-Weiß Rankweil 6–5 Imst: Result & Stats

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

FT

6 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Imst

5/12/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 25Gastrastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil31%

×Draw21%

Imst48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiß RankweilExpected goals in this matchImst

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.21

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.75

Imst

2.21

Imst creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

1.92

creates per match

2.02

2.41

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.92

Imst

2.02

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

2.41

Imst

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Imst+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Rankweil ↓

Imst →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Rankweil or draw

52%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil or Imst

79%

Draw or Imst

69%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+

15%

Imst wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals

83%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals

52%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals

25%

Imst 1+ goals

89%

Imst 2+ goals

65%

Imst 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)

39%

Imst (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Rankweil at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.41 · 51 matches

Imst away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.92 + Imst defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.75

Imst attack 2.02 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more

31%

level

21%

Imst scores more

48%

Imst at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Imst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff